ROME / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, global cereal production is forecasted to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. This marks a 2% decrease from the record harvest achieved in 2025. The latest figures are also 3.4 million tonnes lower than previous estimates. Despite this decline, worldwide cereal output is projected to remain the second highest ever, with a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes compared to last year.
A significant part of the global downward trend is attributed to maize, with production expected to be 1.309 billion tonnes. Hot and dry weather conditions have lowered yield forecasts across parts of the European Union. France and Poland have seen some of the most notable downward revisions. Smaller reductions have also been recorded in India and Paraguay, while increased yields in Argentina and Brazil have partially offset the declines. Both South American nations continue to project maize crops well above their recent averages.
The outlook for wheat has improved since the last assessment, though global production remains below that of the previous year. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates output at 810.7 million tonnes, up 4.2 million tonnes from earlier predictions. Improved yield expectations have contributed to the positive revision for Canada and Morocco. Forecasts for Russia and Ukraine have also risen, whereas dry conditions have caused a downward revision for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these changes, global wheat production still falls 3.8% short of 2025 figures.
Weakness in Maize Production Impacts Global Grain Output
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is anticipated to reach 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, representing a 1.9% decrease from the revised record of the previous season. Enhanced harvest results in Myanmar and Sri Lanka have contributed to the latest projections, but these gains could not fully offset the weaker forecasts for China, the Philippines, and the United States. Notably, U.S. rice acreage has fallen to levels unseen in decades, reducing the country’s expected contribution to the global supply.
World cereal consumption is estimated to hit 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% from the prior season. While consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, wheat consumption is projected to decline from the high levels recorded last year. Global rice utilization is forecast at 559 million tonnes, driven by rising food demand with population growth. Additionally, feed demand supports coarse grain use, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stockpiles Remain Elevated Despite Reduced Production Outlook
Cereal inventories worldwide are projected to close the 2027 season at 947.2 million tonnes. Although this is 10.7 million tonnes below previous forecasts, it still exceeds opening levels by 1.8 million tonnes. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the prior season. Wheat reserves are set to increase in Russia and Ukraine, while reductions in maize and barley stocks account for most of the downward adjustment in overall stock levels.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is estimated at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. However, this figure remains below the record volumes seen in 2025/26. The rise is primarily driven by higher maize trade, with Argentina projected to export up to 39 million tonnes. Meanwhile, global rice trade in 2026 is expected to reach 60.5 million tonnes, representing a 1.9% decrease from the record level established in 2025.